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	<title>H1 2026 &#8211; Bullish</title>
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		<title>Dino Polska H1 – a Headline Beat Masks a Stalling Core Business</title>
		<link>https://bullish.se/brief/2026/08/23/dino-polska-h1-a-headline-beat-masks-a-stalling-core-business/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bullish]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2026 06:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Earnings Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dino Polska]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[H1 2026]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Dino Polska's Q2 2026 net profit topped consensus, but like-for-like sales growth nearly stalled at just 0.3 percent and EBITDA margin kept falling.]]></description>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Dino Polska, the Polish discount-format supermarket chain, published its first-half 2026 report on Thursday. </p>


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    <tv-single-ticker symbol="GPW:DNP"></tv-single-ticker>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Second-quarter net profit of PLN 400.1 million topped the PAP Biznes consensus of PLN 391.8 million, and EBITDA came in essentially in line. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Revenue grew 10.5 percent year-on-year to PLN 9.53 billion, a touch below the PLN 9.56 billion analysts had penciled in. On paper, a clean, unremarkable print.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Consensus est. (PAP Biznes)</th><th>Actual Q2 2026</th><th>Beat/Miss</th></tr></thead><thead><tr><td>Revenue (Q2 2026)</td><td>PLN 9,557m</td><td>PLN 9,531m</td><td>Miss (-0.3%)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>EBIT (Q2 2026)</td><td>PLN 513m</td><td>PLN 511m</td><td>Miss (-0.4%)</td></tr><tr><td>EPS (Q2 2026)*</td><td>~PLN 0.40</td><td>PLN 0.41</td><td>Beat (+2%)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>* EPS consensus derived from PAP Biznes’ net profit estimate of PLN 391.8m; not independently published as a per-share figure.</em></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The number that actually matters sits below the headline: like-for-like sales growth (LFL, sales growth from stores open more than a year) cratered to just 0.3 percent in the second quarter alone, down from 8.8 percent a year earlier and from 4.4 percent as recently as the first quarter. EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, as a share of revenue) kept falling too, to 6.98 percent from 7.54 percent. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For context, Biedronka — Dino’s much larger domestic rival — improved its own EBITDA margin by roughly 42 basis points in the same quarter. Dino is still opening stores at pace, but the core business is barely growing organically right now.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What strikes me is that the stock rose about 7,7 percent on a quarter this weak, which tells me expectations had already been reset lower than the headline numbers suggest — this reads more like relief than vindication. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There’s also a new, unpriced risk here: Poland’s competition authority opened an antitrust probe into Dino’s trucking arrangements in June, with a maximum fine of 10 percent of last year’s sales. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The next real test is Q3, when analysts expect the margin trend to start turning.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>EQT H1 – The Fundraising Machine Just Proved the Bulls Right</title>
		<link>https://bullish.se/brief/2026/07/19/eqt-h1-the-fundraising-machine-just-proved-the-bulls-right/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bullish]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Jul 2026 11:33:30 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Earnings Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EQT AB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[H1 2026]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[EQT reported H1 2026 results on July 17. FAUM jumped to €155bn, EQT XI secured half its target, and the AI Infrastructure strategy reached $9.4bn in NAV in under three months. The stock rose 11 percent on the day.]]></description>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">EQT AB reported <a href="https://cdn.sanity.io/files/30p7so6x/eqt-public-web-prod/aa8d4bd44276e9895939b757cf9c63d6728f201f.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">H1 2026 results on July 17</a>. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Swedish alternative asset manager — which manages approximately €155bn in fee-generating assets across private equity, infrastructure, and real estate — delivered a half-year that answered almost every question the market had been asking.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Consensus est. H1 2026</th><th>Actual H1 2026</th><th>Beat/Miss</th></tr></thead><thead><tr><td>Adjusted revenue</td><td>~€1,370m</td><td>€1,407m</td><td>Beat</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Adjusted EBITDA margin</td><td>~58–60%</td><td>60%</td><td>In line</td></tr><tr><td>EPS (adjusted)</td><td>€0.55–0.65</td><td>€0.590</td><td>In line / slight beat</td></tr><tr><td>FAUM (end of period)</td><td>Flat to slight increase</td><td>€155bn (+10% vs Jun-25)</td><td>Beat</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The number that mattered most going into this report was not on the income statement. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It was EQT XI — and it delivered. The fund has secured commitments corresponding to half its €23bn target, with activation expected toward the end of Q3. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That confirmation, combined with FAUM (Fee-generating Assets Under Management) jumping from €141.6bn to €155bn in a single half, was the catalyst the re-rating required.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What strikes me most is the AI Infrastructure strategy. Launched in Q1, it reached $9.4bn in NAV in less than three months — a fundraising velocity that very few strategies in EQT’s history have matched. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The evergreen platform hit €10bn in combined NAV (including Coller Capital), and Private Capital value creation in EQT X accelerated meaningfully, with weighted average EBITDA growth of 24 percent over the last twelve months.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The fee-related EBITDA margin came in at 50 percent versus 54 percent in H1 2025, which looks like a miss at first glance — but the decline is entirely explained by lower retroactive fees that inflated H1 2025. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Adjusted for that effect, underlying fee-related revenue growth was plus 5 percent. The market read through it correctly.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Coller Capital remains on track for a Q3 close. EQT Infrastructure VII has set its target at €21bn. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The pipeline of new strategies — Scaleup Europe Fund, Active Core Infrastructure, US Industrial Value VII — adds four platforms each with expected FAUM above €5bn, all launched within six months. The next inflection point is EQT XI activation in Q3 and EQT Infrastructure VII activation around year-end.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The stock’s 11 percent move to SEK 318 on the day felt proportionate. The market spent six months pricing in “good business, bad timing.” The H1 2026 report closed that debate.</p>
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