EQT Is Quietly Becoming the Backbone of the AI Economy

When Galderma – the skincare company EQT turned from a Nestlé carve-out into a global dermatology powerhouse – was finally sold through a $6 billion block trade in Q1 2026, it became the largest fully monetized capital gain from a single fund in the history of private equity.

Not bad for a company most people outside the beauty industry had never heard of.

That is EQT in a sentence. Enormous outcomes, quietly executed, in businesses that don’t make headlines until the exit.

EQT is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and trades at approximately SEK 279 (as of July 9, 2026), giving it a market cap of roughly SEK 325 billion (approximately €28bn).

The stock is down around 25 percent from its 52-week high of SEK 383 – a de-rating that happened not because the business deteriorated, but because the market repriced alt asset managers broadly on fundraising cycle anxiety and macro uncertainty.

Fee-based private equity management

EQT manages and advises private market funds across two main segments: Private Capital (private equity, venture, growth, healthcare) and Real Assets (infrastructure, real estate).

The model is fee-based at its core: EQT charges management fees on the capital it has raised, earns carried interest when funds outperform, and reinvests in new funds to repeat the cycle.

What EQT is selling is not just access to private markets – it’s access to a specific operating model.

The firm controls its portfolio companies actively, bringing in what it calls world-class chairpersons and CEOs, running structured value creation programs, and increasingly deploying AI tools across the portfolio to accelerate operational improvement.

Galderama gained $20 billion

The Galderma outcome is the proof of concept. EQT VIII bought a carve-out most wouldn’t touch, transformed it, and walked away with $20 billion in capital gains.

The customer is the institutional investor – pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments – who allocates to EQT’s closed-ended funds in cycles of 4–6 years.

Increasingly, EQT is also building toward individual investors through its evergreen vehicles (open-ended, no lock-up), which hit a record €1 billion in net inflows in Q1 2026.

That channel is still small relative to the total platform, but the growth rate is significant: NAV in evergreens reached €4.5bn and is scaling fast.

A huge value creator

Where EQT sits in the value chain is important to understand. It is not the company that builds things. It is the company that figures out which companies are worth building, puts the right people in charge, and holds them accountable for transformation.

For that service, it collects approximately 1.5–2 percent of fee-generating AUM per year, plus carried interest. At €142bn in FAUM, that’s a substantial recurring revenue stream before a single exit happens.

Key portfolio holdings

Private Capital – significant remaining positions:

• EQT IX (€18.6bn remaining value): diversified buyout fund with investments across technology, healthcare, and business services – EQT’s largest fund by committed capital at €15.6bn.
• EQT X (€15.6bn remaining value): active buyout fund, 60–65% invested as of April 2026; includes Fortnox (Swedish cloud accounting) and NEOGOV (HR software for public sector).
• BPEA IX (just starting): Asia-focused, including Fujitec (Japanese elevator manufacturer) and Douzone Bizon (Korean ERP).
• BPEA VIII (€10.1bn remaining): includes Sagility (healthcare BPO, India-listed).
• EQT VIII (€5.5bn remaining): materially realized; previously included Galderma (fully exited Q1 2026), Waystar (US healthcare payments), IFS (enterprise software, stake partially sold in 2025).

Real Assets – significant remaining positions:

• EQT Infrastructure VI (€12.1bn remaining value): active fund; Q1 2026 investments include AES (clean energy, North America), Urbaser (waste management, Europe), Kelda (UK water & wastewater).
• EQT Infrastructure V (€18.5bn remaining): includes EdgeConneX (global data centers – now also seeding the new AI Infrastructure strategy).
• EQT Infrastructure IV (€11.9bn remaining): includes minority stake in EdgeConneX.
• EQT Infrastructure III (€0.8bn remaining, >2.7x MOIC): largely realized.

The Numbers That Matter

EQT generated €2,283m in fee-related revenue in 2025, up 9 percent from €2,104m in 2024.

Fee-related EBITDA was €1,194m, a margin of 52 percen, and the company has stated it expects to reach 55 percent at the completion of this fundraising cycle.

The number that most analysts debate is carried interest. In 2025, adjusted carried interest was €448m (up from €251m the year before), driven by exits in EQT VIII, BPEA VII, and BPEA VI.

Carried interest is lumpy, recognition-lagged, and difficult to model.

FAUM has been essentially flat for two quarters: €141.2bn at year-end 2025, €141.6bn at end of Q1 2026.

That’s not a warning sign – it’s the natural trough between major fundraising cycles.

EQT XI hasn’t been activated yet (expected mid-2026), and Coller Capital (€30bn in FAUM) hasn’t closed yet. The FAUM trajectory in H2 2026 and 2027 should look very different.

Net debt was €1,448m at year-end 2025, equal to 0.9x adjusted EBITDA – a comfortable level. The company has a €1.5bn revolving credit facility that remained undrawn.

The number I watch most closely is the evergreen NAV trajectory, currently €4.5bn and growing at roughly €1bn per quarter. That channel represents a structural shift in how EQT accesses the private wealth channel – and it’s not yet priced into most models.

The Chart Read

EQT.ST peaked at SEK 383 in late 2025 and has since fallen roughly 25 percent to the SEK 280–290 range.

The stock is consolidating around the SEK 260–270 support zone, which has held multiple times. The 52-week low is SEK 262.10.

The technical setup is uninspiring in isolation – but when paired with the fundamental backdrop, the risk/reward looks more interesting than the chart suggests. A close below SEK 262 would change that assessment.

What the Market Is Thinking

The consensus on EQT is essentially: “Great business, wrong time.” The market is pricing in a prolonged fundraising drought, anxiety about private equity multiples, and uncertainty about whether fee margins can hold as AUM growth slows.

Eight of 12 analysts rate the stock Buy, with an average price target of SEK 403 – roughly 40 percent above the current price.

I think the market is partially right about the timing, but wrong about what it implies for the long-term thesis.

The worry about FAUM stagnation misses the compounding engine that’s being built inside the evergreen platform. It also underestimates the optionality embedded in the Coller acquisition: EQT is entering secondaries – the fastest-growing segment in private markets – through a firm with a 35-year track record and $30bn+ in FAUM.

That’s not a side bet. That’s a fourth business segment that didn’t exist 18 months ago.

The more legitimate bear argument is on exits. If public markets remain choppy and strategic buyers stay cautious, EQT’s ability to generate carried interest from the current portfolio could be pushed out by 12–18 months. That’s a real risk, but it’s a timing risk, not a structural one.

The Risks You Should Actually Worry About

1. Deployment risk in EQT X and BPEA IX. EQT X is 60–65 percent invested; BPEA IX is 5–10 percent. These are the two largest active funds. If the deal environment remains challenging, both funds could struggle to deploy capital at attractive returns. A disappointing MOIC trajectory in either fund would damage fundraising prospects for EQT XI and beyond. This is not catastrophic, but it is the scenario where the thesis stalls for 2–3 years.

2. The Coller integration. Acquiring a €30bn secondaries firm for $3.2bn is a bold move. Coller brings culture, relationships, and track record that don’t automatically transfer to a new parent. Secondaries origination is deeply relationship-driven – if key people leave post-acquisition, EQT’s plan to double Coller’s AUM within four years becomes very difficult. Watch the people announcements in H2 2026.

3. Multiple compression at the platform level. EQT trades at approximately 40x trailing earnings (IFRS). If fee-related EBITDA margins disappoint – a 55 percent target that has been reiterated multiple times – the re-rating could be painful.

The Verdict

EQT is one of the most compellingly constructed alternative asset managers in public markets. The fee base is durable, the fund track record is strong (all Key funds on or above plan), and the strategic additions – Coller Capital, AI Infrastructure, evergreens – are exactly the right bets for where private markets are going.

What needs to happen for this to work: EQT XI activates in H2 2026 and closes above its €23bn target. Coller integration is smooth. Evergreen NAV continues growing at €1bn+ per quarter. If all three occur, the fee-related revenue line re-accelerates into 2027 in a way that current estimates don’t fully capture.

At SEK 279 with a consensus target of SEK 403, I think the market is offering a reasonable entry point for investors with a 2–3 year horizon. The catalyst timeline is clear. What I’m watching closest is the H1 2026 report on July 17 – specifically whether EQT XI’s first close is confirmed and what the Coller Capital integration timeline looks like after regulatory approvals.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the author holds a position in the securities discussed in this article.